Bitcoin has cleared its prior all time high from two months ago.

As you know, BTC has cleared its prior all time high from two months ago. I also posted about the BTC risk metric this cycle, it hasn’t spent time in the heated zone yet, only a brief spike into the low 80s (red). Right now: risk = 60 around $125K. BTC has been living around this risk band for roughly 2 years (Dec 2023 till now). History: when parabolic runs started from risk ~50 (purple): Dec 2012 (~$13): ran until Dec 2013, risk ~94, price ~$1.1K (~1 year run). Jun 2016 (~$500): ran until Dec 2017, risk ~95, price ~$19,500 (~1.5 year run). Oct 2020 (~$13K), special case (post COVID liquidity): Hit risk 93 in Mar 2021 ($63K), and ultimately topped in Nov 2021 with risk ~75 at ~$67.5K (~2 year run). This cycle: BTC started from risk ~50 in Dec 2023. It’s been almost 2 years, but we still haven’t seen sustained time in the 80–100 heated zone. Historically, each cycle has stretched a bit longer (~ 0.5 year), so BTC could have ~0.5 year left to run, it needs to spend time in that 80-100 band before peaking. Risk Evolution Tracker Levels to watch: Once BTC clears the 60 risk area decisively, the model points to the 70s risk zone next, roughly $147K on my Dynamic Risk Range. Bottom line: I’m looking for sustained time in 80-100 before calling a cycle top. Until then, manage risk, scale with the bands, and remember: it’s not about perfect timing, it’s about having a plan and sticking to it. submitted by /u/hduynam99 [link] [comments]

from Bitcoin - The Currency of the Internet https://ift.tt/pnfAtus