Oh oh
Tom Lee just predicted a rally...
BTC about to go down :(
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-braces-15-6b-friday-135715839.html
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Tom Lee just predicted a rally... BTC about to go down :( https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-braces-15-6b-friday-13...
Tom Lee just predicted a rally...
BTC about to go down :(
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-braces-15-6b-friday-135715839.html
| Developers just figured out a way to hide who sent bitcoin, who received it, and how much moved, without changing Bitcoin itself. This new proposed idea is not a fork around the protocol or new cryptocurrency. This is how Bitcoin was designed, a base layer people can innovate on without asking permission. On Thursday, researcher Misha Komarov and colleagues published Shielded Bitcoin, a Zcash-style shielded pool for Bitcoin’s base layer. Encrypted notes and zero-knowledge proofs ride along in ordinary Bitcoin transactions. Separate software checks that no coins are created from nothing and none are spent twice. There is no company running the pool, no sidechain, and no soft fork. Funds go in and out through cryptographic vaults Komarov has been building, called PIPEs, so no federation has to hold the bitcoin. Miners do not enforce the privacy rules. Invalid shielded data can still land in a block, indexers simply ignore it. The trade is: Bitcoin stays conservative, and the experiment lives on top of it. If it works, private transfers arrive the way most of Bitcoin’s best ideas have, not by rewriting the constitution, but by building on the settlement layer everyone already trusts. [link] [comments] |
Every headline this month has been bad. Jobs numbers soft, manufacturing contracting, consumer credit stress, and half of Europe flat. Normally you'd expect risk assets to take that badly. Instead bitcoin has been climbing.
I've seen three explanations going round and I'm not convinced by any of them on their own.
The first is that bad data means rate cuts, and rate cuts mean liquidity, and bitcoin is a liquidity asset before it's anything else. This one probably has the most going for it historically. the problem is that the market has priced cuts early and been wrong about it repeatedly, and "bad news is good news" tends to hold right up until the bad news is bad enough to actually matter.
The second is the debasement trade, people front running currency weakness. i have some sympathy for this but it's also the explanation people reach for whenever they want a reason that flatters what they already own.
The third is just flows. ETFs, corporate treasuries, and monthly retail buying that goes in regardless of what the news says. Mechanical demand doesn't read the jobs report. That's the least romantic answer and probably the most accurate one.
What I keep coming back to is that a real recession has never actually been tested against this asset. 2020 was a liquidity crisis that got fixed in three weeks by enormous stimulus. 2022 was a rate shock and bitcoin fell 75 percent alongside tech. neither of those is the same as a slow grinding downturn where people lose jobs and sell whatever they can.
So I'm holding, but I'm not treating this as proof of anything. Green candles during bad data feel like confirmation and usually aren't tbh
| submitted by /u/degen_to_sensei [link] [comments] |
| I never thought I’d be making a post like this. [link] [comments] |
I realized that who the hell knows why the markets are doing what they’re doing. Interest-rates went up and stocks and crypto soared. At some point it’s just dollar cost average and hold on for dear life.